1999 National Collegiate Women's Rowing Championship

May 28-30, 1999
Lake Natoma
Sacramento, California, USA

Pre-Race Analysis for Saturday Afternoon Semi-Final Heats

Opinion / Analysis by Kent Mitchell (Totally Unofficial)

Last updated: 12:05 am PDT on Saturday

    Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 1

    Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 2

Disclaimer

These are pre-race analysis of the semi-final heats of Varsity Eights to be run Saturday morning. These are not straight mixes of times of these crews in their preliminary heat races, because times in the repechage heat have been taken into account in adjusting the heat times of some of the crews who appeared to let off in the heats at some point in those races. This is strictly the unofficial opinion of Kent Mitchell and not a prediction, but it may go this way.

Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 1
Race time: Saturday 11:00 am

Opinion / Analysis by Kent Mitchell (Totally Unofficial)

Expect Washington to lead at each 500 meter interval and win, with a modest challenge likely in the last 500 meters from Michigan, Brown and Virginia. Brown and Michigan seem to row each interval side by side in about the same speed fighting for second. The puzzle is Virginia, a high seed in this regatta, which so far has not shown early speed. Virginia must get out of the blocks faster and press hard to stay in touch better in the first 1000 meters. Virginia's last 1000 meters is fine, but it must stay with Michigan and Brown better in the first 500 meters and much better in the second 500 meters, where Virginia seems to be most vulnerable. It will be a dog fight for 2nd and 3rd place in the last 500 meters between Michigan, Brown and Virginia, with Boston an outside chance to get into the final also.

A proforma picture of the possible race progression and ending follows:

                    1999 NCAA WOMEN'S ROWING CHAMPIONSHIPS

                      VARSITY WOMEN'S EIGHT SEM-FINAL-H 1

              ***** prediction *****         ***** prediction *****

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS      WIND            ELAPSED   SPLIT    STROKES/
                            1500*  0 M/S    CREW   TIME     TIME    MTRS TO GO
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  BOS       <BOS                          WSH  1:37.97  1:37.97
  5  VIR       <VIR                          MIC  1:40.94  1:40.94
  4  WSH <WSH                                DAR  1:41.55  1:41.55
  3  BRN      <BRN                           BRN  1:42.88  1:42.88
  2  MIC    <MIC                             BOS  1:43.20  1:43.20
  1  DAR     <DAR                            VIR  1:44.13  1:44.13
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  BOS            <BOS                     WSH  3:22.45  1:44.47
  5  VIR          <VIR                       MIC  3:27.77  1:46.83
  4  WSH <WSH                                BRN  3:27.94  1:45.06
  3  BRN       <BRN                          DAR  3:29.00  1:47.44
  2  MIC      <MIC                           VIR  3:31.08  1:46.94
  1  DAR        <DAR                         BOS  3:33.30  1:50.09
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  BOS              <BOS                   WSH  5:06.92  1:44.46
  5  VIR          <VIR                       MIC  5:12.41  1:44.63
  4  WSH <WSH                                BRN  5:12.54  1:44.59
  3  BRN       <BRN                          VIR  5:15.55  1:44.47
  2  MIC       <MIC                          DAR  5:16.52  1:47.52
  1  DAR           <DAR                      BOS  5:20.00  1:46.69
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  BOS       <BOS                          WSH  6:52.73  1:45.81
  5  VIR      <VIR                           MIC  6:55.20  1:42.79
  4  WSH <WSH                                BRN  6:55.27  1:42.73
  3  BRN    <BRN                             VIR  6:57.30  1:41.75
  2  MIC    <MIC                             BOS  6:58.00  1:38.00
  1  DAR           <DAR                      DAR  7:02.83  1:46.30
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

              ***** prediction *****         ***** prediction *****

COPYRIGHT 1999 ** JAMCO SOFTWARE FOR SPLITS **
http://www.jamcotimes.com

View actual results from Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 1.

Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 2
Race time: Saturday 11:20 am

Opinion / Analysis by Kent Mitchell (Totally Unofficial)

Expect Princeton to win, but perhaps only by a whisker over Michigan State, which may be the fastest closing crew in the nation. Five boats (probably excepting Harvard) could be within a length of each other at the finish, with Princeton, Michigan State and Northeastern appearing to have the edge to make the final. But watch for a fast last 1000 meters from Cal as a possible challenge, and if Harvard can stay with the pack in the last 500 meters, and if USC's 3rd 500 is a bit stronger, third place and a slot in the finals could be a toss up between Northeastern, Cal, USC and Harvard. This is strictly the opinion of Kent Mitchell, entirely unoffical, and not a prediction.

A proforma of how the race may progress and end follows.

                    1999 NCAA WOMEN'S ROWING CHAMPIONSHIPS

                      VARSITY WOMEN'S EIGHT SEM-FINAL-H 2

              ***** prediction *****         ***** prediction *****

LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS      WIND            ELAPSED   SPLIT    STROKES/
                            1500*  0 M/S    CREW   TIME     TIME    MTRS TO GO
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  USC       <USC                          PRN  1:38.13  1:38.13
  5  NOR    <NOR                             MSU  1:39.45  1:39.45
  4  CAL       <CAL                          HAR  1:40.18  1:40.18
  3  PRN <PRN                                NOR  1:40.66  1:40.66
  2  MSU  <MSU                               CAL  1:43.43  1:43.43
  1  HAR   <HAR                              USC  1:43.55  1:43.55
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  USC          <USC                       PRN  3:23.00  1:44.86
  5  NOR    <NOR                             MSU  3:25.00  1:45.54
  4  CAL          <CAL                       NOR  3:25.86  1:45.19
  3  PRN <PRN                                HAR  3:26.39  1:46.21
  2  MSU   <MSU                              USC  3:31.89  1:48.34
  1  HAR    <HAR                             CAL  3:32.02  1:48.59
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  USC          <USC                       PRN  5:08.77  1:45.77
  5  NOR    <NOR                             MSU  5:11.39  1:46.39
  4  CAL       <CAL                          NOR  5:11.58  1:45.72
  3  PRN <PRN                                HAR  5:12.79  1:46.39
  2  MSU    <MSU                             CAL  5:14.55  1:42.53
  1  HAR     <HAR                            USC  5:17.20  1:45.30
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  USC     <USC                            PRN  6:54.39  1:45.61  34.0/ 232M
  5  NOR   <NOR                              MSU  6:54.70  1:43.30
  4  CAL    <CAL                             NOR  6:56.36  1:44.77
  3  PRN <PRN                                CAL  6:57.01  1:42.45  37.0/ 220M
  2  MSU <MSU                                USC  6:58.00  1:40.79
  1  HAR        <HAR                         HAR  7:01.20  1:48.41
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+

              ***** prediction *****         ***** prediction *****

COPYRIGHT 1999 ** JAMCO SOFTWARE FOR SPLITS **
http://www.jamcotimes.com

View actual results from Varsity Eight Semi-final Heat 2.

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