Men's Eight - Final
Sunday, August 29, 1999
Note: We do not have the FISA lane assignments yet for this race, but do know the pairs of crews who will be placed in lanes 3/4, 2/5 and 1/6, respectively, and have assigned lanes accordingly. Even if lane assignments change within those pairings, it will not affect the prediction. The prediction is based on the split times of each crew in the headwind conditions of the preliminary heat races, not the tailwind record setting conditions in the repechage heats on Wednesday.
Pre-race Analysis: In its preliminary heat the USA barely escaped being overtaken in the last 500 meters by 2nd place ROM, and may have thoughts of backing off a little in the first 1500 meters of the final to save something to defend against ROM's fast finish. The problem is that when you look at the splits of RUS in the other preliminary heat, they are virtually identical to USA splits over the first 1500 meters. So, on the one hand backing off makes sense to prepare to hold ROM off, but it may also mean having to overtake a RUS leader in the last 500 meters! So, what do you do? Do you count on RUS' last 500 meter split falling off again, as it did in the preliminary heat, or do you figure you can hold off ROM's rush one more time and stay with RUS through the first 1500 meters? A tough decision. What's worse for the USA decision is that ROM broke the world record on Wednesday in the repechage tailwind conditions, only to be beaten by NED which itself came back from oblivion in its preliminary heat to set the new world record in the same repechage. Where does that put NED when ROM is making its last 500 meter rush to overtake USA and RUS for the gold? Maybe just a little bit ahead of ROM and all over the USA and RUS! Finally, don't leave GBR out of the medal contenders. It most likely is not a gold or silver for GBR, but a bronze is definitely within reach. GBR had comfortable leads throughout its repechage on Wednesday and ended up only 2 seconds off NED's new world record time set in the other repechage heat. It may come down to wind conditions. If the course gets any slower than it was in the preliminaries, then fast starters USA and RUS may pay the price and ROM reap the reward for gold. A headwind may not be NED's cup of tea, if its preliminary race is a true indication. But, if the conditions are no slower than they were in the preliminary heats, and indeed if they are fast as they were for the repechage heats on Wednesday, the relative performances in the preliminary heats may be repeated. Under fast conditions, USA and RUS should benefit from their early leads and have only each other to contend with in the last 500 meters. Having said all this, we call USA for gold; and RUS, NED, ROM and GBR fighting in the last 500 meters for silver, bronze, 4th and 5th places, with ITA trailing, but with no clue whatsoever how its all going to come out.
1999 WORLD ROWING CHAMPIONSHIPS 'PREDICTIONS' RACE # 607
MEN'S EIGHT FINALS
LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS ELAPSED SPLIT
1500* CREW TIME TIME
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 ROM <ROM USA 1:20.88 1:20.88
5 GBR <GBR RUS 1:20.94 1:20.94
4 USA <USA ROM 1:22.02 1:22.02
3 RUS <RUS GBR 1:22.58 1:22.58
2 NED <NED ITA 1:22.61 1:22.61
1 ITA <ITA NED 1:24.00 1:24.00
---+---+---+---+---+---+
1000*
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 ROM <ROM USA 2:46.27 1:25.38
5 GBR <GBR RUS 2:46.42 1:25.48
4 USA <USA ROM 2:49.05 1:27.03
3 RUS <RUS GBR 2:49.27 1:26.69
2 NED <NED ITA 2:51.55 1:28.94
1 ITA <ITA NED 2:52.83 1:28.83
---+---+---+---+---+---+
500 *
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 ROM <ROM RUS 4:13.39 1:26.97
5 GBR <GBR USA 4:13.58 1:27.31
4 USA <USA ROM 4:15.61 1:26.55
3 RUS <RUS GBR 4:16.07 1:26.79
2 NED <NED ITA 4:18.02 1:26.47
1 ITA <ITA NED 4:20.66 1:27.82
---+---+---+---+---+---+
FINISH*
---+---+---+---+---+---+
6 ROM <ROM USA 5:40.48 1:26.89
5 GBR <GBR ROM 5:40.83 1:25.22
4 USA <USA RUS 5:42.26 1:28.86
3 RUS <RUS GBR 5:43.70 1:27.62
2 NED <NED ITA 5:46.52 1:28.50
1 ITA <ITA NED 5:49.14 1:28.48
---+---+---+---+---+---+
Source: FISA
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