Pre-Race Analysis for Varsity Men's Copley Cup
April 2, 2000

This looks like an easy victory for California, even though it may be in 3rd place 500 meters into the race behind Washington and Harvard. Cal's second 500 is devastating, and should put it a length ahead at 1000m with clear sailing to an open water victory.

Washington should place 2nd, slightly ahead of Harvard and Penn. However, if Washington puts out too much in the second 500 meters trying to stop Cal's mover, it will be vulnerable to losing 2nd place to either Harvard or Penn in the last 1000 meters. Washington seems capable of moving away from both Harvard and Penn in the 3rd 500, if it is patient during the 2nd 500 meter interval.

Harvard needs to bear down in the 3rd 500 to stop Washington's move away, and to prevent Penn from moving up on Harvard in that 3rd 500.

Penn needs to pull within a quarter length of Harvard at 1000m, in order to be even or ahead of Harvard with 500m to go. The race between them in the last 1000 meters should be very close.

If Wisconsin can do better in the first 500 meters, and stay overlapped with Harvard, Penn and Cal, then expect Wisconsin to be in the hunt with an outside chance for 3rd place over the last 1000 meters.

Temple fades too much over the first 1500 meters to be in a good position to challenge for 3rd place.

A proforma presentation of the final race based on a mix of these crews' times in their respective heats follows.

                    2000 SAN DIEGO CREW CLASSIC         RACE # 235 

                             PREDICTION

                     COPLEY MEN'S EIGHT FINALS


LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS      WIND            ELAPSED   SPLIT
                            1500*  0 M/S    CREW   TIME     TIME
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  WIS      <WIS                           WAS  1:26.38  1:26.38
  5  TEM      <TEM                           HAR  1:27.16  1:27.16
  4  HAR  <HAR                               CAL  1:27.72  1:27.72
  3  PEN    <PEN                             PEN  1:28.80  1:28.80
  2  CAL   <CAL                              TEM  1:30.12  1:30.12
  1  WAS <WAS                                WIS  1:30.73  1:30.73
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  WIS        <WIS                         CAL  2:53.61  1:25.89
  5  TEM          <TEM                       HAR  2:57.25  1:30.08
  4  HAR     <HAR                            WAS  2:57.36  1:30.97
  3  PEN        <PEN                         WIS  2:59.61  1:28.87
  2  CAL <CAL                                PEN  2:59.70  1:30.89
  1  WAS     <WAS                            TEM  3:01.47  1:31.34
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  WIS           <WIS                      CAL  4:22.00  1:28.38
  5  TEM               <TEM                  WAS  4:27.36  1:30.00
  4  HAR         <HAR                        HAR  4:28.80  1:31.55
  3  PEN          <PEN                       PEN  4:29.20  1:29.49
  2  CAL <CAL                                WIS  4:30.02  1:30.41
  1  WAS        <WAS                         TEM  4:33.54  1:32.07
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  WIS               <WIS                  CAL  5:52.20  1:30.20
  5  TEM              <TEM                   WAS  5:58.64  1:31.27
  4  HAR          <HAR                       HAR  5:59.64  1:30.83
  3  PEN           <PEN                      PEN  6:01.01  1:31.81
  2  CAL <CAL                                TEM  6:03.10  1:29.56
  1  WAS         <WAS                        WIS  6:03.82  1:33.79
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+


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