JAMCO - 1999 FISA World Rowing Championships, Prediction # 507

Men's Coxless Four - Final
Saturday, August 28, 1999

Note: We do not have FISA lane assignments yet for this final, but have placed crews by pairs according to which were the winners, which were 2nd and which were 3rd into lanes 3/4, 2/5 or 1/6. We will not change these assignments even when the FISA lanes are published, because it does not affect our predictions at all.

Pre-race Analysis: The world championship mantle seems safe for another year in the capable hands of GBR, which should lead from start to finish for the gold. ITA and NZL will be in a battle for the silver and bronze, but if NZL puts out too much trying for the silver, then AUS and FRA will be right there in the last 500 meters ready to pounce and make NZL regret it.
Postscript:
(8/27/99) Since posting this prediction last night, observers on the ground in St. Catherine's (I am 2500 miles away in California looking only at splits) have suggested we reconsider AUS' prospects. Indeed, AUS demonstrated ability in the Sunday heat to row 3.7 seconds faster in the last 500 compared to its 3rd 500. However, in the semis, leading FRA comfortably with 500m to go, AUS rowed a 1:34 in the both the 3rd and last 500m segments. Its 3rd 500m split in its preliminary heat was also close to 1:34 (1:33.9), so expect AUS to move up considerably in the last 500 and capture the silver with an outside shot at GBR's gold.


                 1999 WORLD ROWING CHAMPIONSHIPS 'PREDICTIONS'       RACE # 507 

                              MEN'S FOUR W/O FINALS


LANE CREW RELATIVE POSITIONS                      ELAPSED   SPLIT
                            1500*           CREW   TIME     TIME
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+  
  6  NOR      <NOR                           GBR  1:26.66  1:26.66
  5  ITA  <ITA                               ITA  1:27.06  1:27.06
  4  AUS    <AUS                             AUS  1:28.22  1:28.22
  3  GBR <GBR                                NZL  1:28.29  1:28.29
  2  FRA         <FRA                        NOR  1:29.30  1:29.30
  1  NZL    <NZL                             FRA  1:31.36  1:31.36
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            1000*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  NOR       <NOR                          GBR  2:58.30  1:31.63
  5  ITA  <ITA                               ITA  2:59.07  1:32.00
  4  AUS     <AUS                            NZL  3:00.19  1:31.90
  3  GBR <GBR                                AUS  3:00.83  1:32.61
  2  FRA          <FRA                       NOR  3:01.86  1:32.55
  1  NZL    <NZL                             FRA  3:03.19  1:31.83
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                            500 *
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  NOR          <NOR                       GBR  4:31.32  1:33.02
  5  ITA   <ITA                              ITA  4:32.67  1:33.60
  4  AUS       <AUS                          NZL  4:33.20  1:33.00
  3  GBR <GBR                                AUS  4:34.95  1:34.11
  2  FRA            <FRA                     NOR  4:36.25  1:34.38
  1  NZL    <NZL                             FRA  4:37.64  1:34.44
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
                          FINISH*
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+
  6  NOR           <NOR                      GBR  6:05.85  1:34.52
  5  ITA   <ITA                              ITA  6:07.10  1:34.42
  4  AUS       <AUS                          NZL  6:08.20  1:35.00
  3  GBR <GBR                                AUS  6:09.35  1:34.39
  2  FRA        <FRA                         FRA  6:09.95  1:32.30
  1  NZL     <NZL                            NOR  6:11.42  1:35.17
         ---+---+---+---+---+---+


Source: FISA
COPYRIGHT 1999 ** JAMCO SOFTWARE FOR SPLITS ** RACE NO.  507 
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